1971—2009年金沙江流域气候变化特征及对生态环境的影响

Climate change characteristics and its effect on ecological environment from 1971 to 2009 in the Jinsha river valley of Yunnan province

基于1971—2009年金沙江流域(云南段)35个气象站逐月平均气温、降水量和蒸发量,分析了近40 a金沙江流域上段、中段、下段的气象要素变化趋势。结果表明:近40 a来,金沙江流域年平均气温变化幅度为0.29℃/10 a;在空间分布上,流域中段年平均气温相对较高且升温幅度达到0.46℃/10 a,上段的年平均气温低且变化幅度不大。金沙江流域年平均降水量以8.89 mm/10 a的速率增加;春季流域年平均降水量最大,在空间分布上,流域上段、中段年平均降水量呈增加趋势,而流域下段呈下降趋势。各气象要素年代变化趋势不太明显。金沙江流域云南段的气候变化对流域内自然生态系统、水资源量和自然灾害等产生影响,从而加剧了流域内生态系统的脆弱性,并在一定程度上影响区域的经济发展水平。

Based on the mean monthly air temperature,precipitation and evaporation of 35 weather stations along the Jinsha river valley of Yunnan province from 1971 to 2009,meteorological elements changes and their trends were analyzed in the upper,middle and lower reaches of the Jinsha river valley in Yunnan province.The results show that the mean annual air temperature increases in recent 40 years with 0.29 ℃/10 a in the study valley.In the middle reaches of the Jinsha river valley,the mean annual air temperature is higher and its trend is 0.46 ℃/10 a,while it is lower in the upper reaches and has less change.The mean annual precipitation increases by 8.89 mm/10 a in the Jinsha river valley,and it is the highest in spring.It increases in the upper and middle reaches,while it decreases in the lower reaches.Inter-annual change trends of various meteorological elements are not significant.The effects of climate change on the natural ecosystem,water resource,and natural disaster and so on are significant,which intensify vulnerability of ecosystem in the valley and influence the local economic development to some extent.