吉林省长春市垃圾产量特征及其灰色预测

CHARACTERISTICS OF MUNICIPAL GARBAGE YIELD OF CHANGCHUN CITY, JILIN PROVINCE AND ITS GREY PREDICTION

根据长春市１９８６～１９９６年共１１年垃圾清运量数据，并结合对长春市居民生活区垃圾日产量的跟踪调查，查明了长春市垃圾产量（包括年产量、月产量和人均日产量）的基本特征和变化规律，分析了垃圾产量增长的受控因素。研究发现大约有３／４的城市垃圾来源于居民家庭之外的社会单位。建立了垃圾年产量的灰色ＧＭ（１，１）预测模型，预计到２００４年长春市垃圾年产量将达到１５０万ｔ。加强非居民家庭产生的垃圾管理对于削减垃圾产量具有特别重要的意义。

On the basis of statistics of municipal garbage clearing and transporting from 1986 to 1996 in Changchun City, Jilin Province and in combination with the throughly tracing census of domestic garbage yield per day , this paper has found out the basic characteristics and varying regularity of municipal garbage yield ( including the yearly yield, monthly yield and yield per person per day),and has also analyzed the controllingfactors of municipal garbage yield increase.It is shown that about three fourths of municipal garbage yield is derived from nondomestic units, which implies that the rigid management on the garbage yielded by nondomestic units is of important significance for municipal garbage sourcereduction. The GM(1,1) prediction model has been set up and predicts that the amount of garbage yield of Changchun in 2004 will be up to 1 500 000 tons.