外商直接投资的动态挤入挤出效应——基于全国及地区差异的分析和检验

The Dynamic Crowding-in-Effects and Crowding-out-Effects of Foreign Direct Investment:An Analysis and Tests based on the Country and Regional Diversity

针对FDI的静态挤入挤出效应不能反映中国经济发展不同阶段中FDI对国内投资影响的差别,本文将Agosin和Mayer模型扩展为一个动态的模型,并对FDI的静态及动态挤入挤出效应进行了实证研究,结果表明:FDI对全国国内资本产生了挤出效应,对东、中、西部地区分别产生了微弱的挤出效应、显著的挤入效应及严重的挤出效应;从FDI动态的长期反应系数来看,FDI对全国及东部地区的影响可分为微弱挤入效应、显著挤出效应及较弱挤入效应三个阶段,对中部地区的影响可分为挤出效应和强挤入效应两个阶段,西部地区FDI对国内投资的全是挤出效应。基于FDI与国内资本之间的动态交互影响,本文提出相应的政策建议。

Aiming at the fact that FDI′s static crowding-in-effects and crowding-out-effects cannot reflect the impacts of FDI on domestic investment throughout the different stages of Chinese economic development respectively,this paper is devoted to the expansion of Agosin and Mayer Model,turning it to a dynamic model.Additionally,empirical analysis has been adopted to study the static and dynamic influences of FDI on domestic investment.The results are as follows.FDI generates crowding-out-effects on domestic capital in the whole country,while weak crowding-out-effects on eastern region,significant crowding-in-effects on central region and critical crowding-out-effects on western region.From the perspective of FDI′s dynamic long-term responding coefficients,the impacts of FDI on the whole country and eastern region can be divided into three stages—the phases of weak crowding-in-effect,significant crowding-out-effect and slight crowding-in-effect.Furthermore,the impacts on central region are grouped into two phases—crowding-out-effect and strong crowding-in-effect.Moreover,the influences of FDI in western region are all crowding-out-effects.Based on the dynamic interacting impacts between FDI and domestic capital,relevant policy suggestions have been proposed in the following contents.