明清绍兴的人口规模与“士多”现象--韩国崔溥《漂海录》有关绍兴记载解读

Shaoxing’s Population Scale and Talent Prolific Phenomenon during Ming and Qing Dynasties

明弘治间韩国学者崔溥《漂海录》记载其时绍兴府城"其阛阓之繁,人物之盛,三倍于宁波",颇与今人感受和统计数字悬隔;关系绍兴文化在明清时代大发展的绍兴府境人口的兴衰,向亦缺乏系统研究。本文在参考和审慎解读人口史成果的基础上,通过充分占有历史文献指出,明末绍兴府总人口很可能已达600万,与当今绍兴全市人口加上旧属绍兴的余姚、萧山人口规模总和不相上下,保守估计也达460万,今之绍兴市范围1990年的人口在明末已具备七八成;清代盛极而衰之前,绍兴府的人口总量遥居全省第一,成为全省乃至全国人口压力最大、最紧张的一个地区,今之绍兴市范围在鸦片战争爆发时人口已达430万,太平天国武装进入浙江前更多达478万,创造了迄今没有再现的绍兴人口最高纪录;绍兴文化在明清时期获得大发展,绍兴也在明清时期成为全国首屈一指的人才摇篮,作为绍兴文化创造主体的绍兴人才之盛堪称登峰造极,有"士比鲫鱼多"之誉,由庞大人口规模所带来的"人口红利"是其中极为重要的原因之一。

'Notes of a Sea Voyage' written by Choe Po, a Korean official during the Ming Hongzhi years records that the population size and prosperity of Shaoxing was three times as much as those of Ningbo at that time, which is drasticly different from modern experience and statistics.Meanwhile, with regard to the rise and fall of the population of Shaoxing during Ming and Qing dynasties, there has been no systematic study. Based on previous results and the large amounts of historical data, this article points out that Shaoxing’s population size was likely to have reached 6 million in the late Ming dynasty. Even a conservative estimate could reach 4.6 million, and Shaoxing’s total population ranked first in the province in the heyday of the Qing Dynasty, a record of the highest population of Shaoxing which has never been reproduced.The author also believes that while Shaoxing culture got great development, Shaoxing became the cradle of the country’s outstanding talents during Ming and Qing Dynasties and that Shaoxing’s great cultural development benefited from the development of the population of Shaoxing.