全国房地产业信用风险压力测试分析

Stress Testing Analysis on the Credit Risks of China's Real Estate Industry

在新一轮房地产调控预期增强并转为现实的背景下,通过建立全国房地产开发贷款信用风险压力测试模型,分析房价、利率、房地产信贷规模、GDP以及房屋销售等因素发生变动时,全国房地产开发贷款质量的变动,以及不同压力情境下房地产开发贷款的质量状况。分析结果表明:房价、信贷规模、GDP对房地产开发贷款的质量具有显著影响,长、短期影响程度有差异。

With the new round of strengthening the regulation expectation of the real estate industry, through constructing a stress - testing model on the loan credit risks of China＇s real estate development, the authors analyze the loan quality change of national real estate development when house price, interest rate, credit scale, GDP and house selling change, and the loan quality of real estate development under different stress. The results show that house price, credit scale and GDP have significant influences on the loan quality of real estate development, with differences in long and short term influences.