摘要
在政治舞台上,关于气候变化的争论常常被认为是两代人的问题。尤其是在科学预测还不能十分准确的条件下,人们特别关心积极的消减行动是否能够保证其公正合理。近年来,随着科学知识的进步和对预防原则的关注,在政策范围内,气候变化已经更广泛地被认为对生态可持续性具有显著的威胁。因此,争论的重点已经逐渐转移到代际问题上,公平负担温室气体的排放逐渐成为争论的基本点。本文从科学和政治两方面探讨在消减过程中出现的问题。尤其是,我们依靠碳循环建模,来探讨到2100年将大气二氧化碳浓度稳定在750ppmv时有效、公平的消减排放策略。
On the political stage the climate change debate used to center primarily around intergenerational issues, particularly whether aggressive abatement action was even warranted-on the basis of uncertain scientific projections. In recent years, influenced by both improved scientific knowledge and greater emphasis on the precautionary principle, within policy circles, climate change has become more widely accepted as a significant threat to ecological sustainability. Accordingly, the focus of debate has gradually shifted to intragenerational concerns, with the issue of equitable burden sharing in terms of greenhouse gas emission abatement emerging as a point of primary contention. This paper integrates scientific and political analyses to explore a number of questions which have been raised during the debate. In particular, we draw on carbon cycle modelling to investigate effective and equitable strategies of emission reduction consistent with stabilization of atmospheric CO2 concentrations at 750 ppmv by 2100.
