中国碳排放增长的宏观因素及可持续增长模式选择

The Macro-Factor of the Growth of Crbon Emission and the Way to Realize Sustainable Growth Model in China

基于1990~2007年时间序列数据,通过构建碳排放与经济增长各宏观因素关系的C-D函数模型,分析得出：技术进步、最终消费支出、资本形成总额、货物及服务净出口对我国碳排放年增长率的贡献额,最终消费支出和技术进步对碳排放增长有抑制效果。根据这一结论,将我国经济发展分为＂高增长,高效率＂,＂低增长,低效率＂,＂低增长,高效率＂,＂高增长,低效率＂4种发展模式。由于消费和技术进步是拉动经济增长的强大动力,因此扩大内需和促进技术创新是我国实现可持续发展的必然途径。

Using the time series data from 1990 to 2007,the authors use Cobb-Dauglas function,and estimate the contribution rate of technology,consumption,investment and net export to carbon emission.The average growing rate of carbon emission is 6.10%,thereinto,the contribution rate of technology is-32.86% and GDP is 38.96%.Based on the contribution rate of technology and the growth rate of GDP,the authors define the following four economic growth modes,the＂high growth with high efficiency＂,＂low growth with low efficiency＂,＂low growth with high efficiency＂,and＂high growth with low efficiency＂.The research suggests that technology and consumption restrain the growth of carbon emission.