我国财政货币政策反经济周期作用实证研究

An Empirical Study on the Role of Counter-cyclical Fiscal and Monetary Policies in China

文章回顾了改革开放以来我国5轮经济周期和8次主要反经济周期的财政货币政策。通过构造实际经济增长率、广义货币增长率和财政赤字增长率三变量VAR模型对财政货币政策的反经济周期作用进行实证分析,发现货币政策的作用时效和强度均优于财政政策,同时二者存在双向联动倾向。另外,文章也分析了政策出现不同效果的原因,认为我国反经济周期应构建以货币政策为主、财政政策为辅的调控体系。

In this paper we reviewed 5 economic cycles and 8 prime counter-cyclical fiscal and monetary policies after reform and opening up.We made a VAR model including three real growing rate of GDP,M2 and fiscal deficit to do empirical study in the role of counter-cyclical fiscal and monetary policies,found that timing and intensity of monetary were superior to fiscal policies,and the two polices trend to double-tight or double-loose.We also analyzed the reasons for different effects of fiscal and monetary policies,and proposed countermeasures.