基于季节调整模型的我国铁路客运量波动分析

Analysis on Fluctuation of Passenger Traffic Volume based on Seasonal Adjustment Model in China

在研究TRAMO/SEATS季节调整模型计算方法的基础上,基于我国铁路2002年1月—2010年2月的客运量月度数据,应用Demetra软件,通过季节调整模型参数设置、模型的估计和检验,得到2010年3月—2012年2月的铁路客运量预测值,并对预测结果进行趋势性和季节性分析。研究结果表明,Tramo/Seats季节调整模型的预测精度较高。

Based on studying the calculation method of TRAMO/SEATS seasonal adjustment model and the monthly data of railway passenger traffic volume in 2002.1-2010.2 in China,by using the Demetra software,the forecast value of railway passenger traffic volume in 2010.3-2012.2 was achieved through the parameter setup,evaluation and inspection of the seasonal adjustment model.Then the paper makes trend and seasonal analysis on the forecast results.The results show that the TRAMO/SEATS seasonal adjustment model has higher forecast precision.