宁夏马铃薯种植的气候分区和风险评估

Climatic Division and Risk Evaluation for Potato Planting in Ningxia

利用1978-2007年的马铃薯产量资料,直线滑动平均得出宁夏马铃薯的相对气象产量,并通过积分回归方法分析得出宁夏马铃薯种植气候分区指标,在地理信息系统软件支持下,利用小网格资源推算法,细化了基本气候资源分布。考虑有灌溉条件和无灌溉条件两种情况,分别对马铃薯种植进行气候分区。结果表明:不考虑灌溉条件时,宁夏马铃薯种植的适宜区主要分布在宁夏南部地区,次适宜区和可种植区主要分布在宁夏中部,不适宜种植区主要分布在北部;当考虑灌溉条件时,可种植区范围在宁夏北部明显增加。并采用歉年减产率、变异系数和减产率<-10%的年份比重形成的综合风险指数,来评估宁夏马铃薯种植的风险。分析得出:马铃薯种植的低风险区主要包括宁夏南部,中风险区主要包括盐池、中卫、中宁等地区,高风险区包括宁夏北部的大部分地区和中部的海原和同心。

The relative meteorological yield of potato was calculated by using line moving average method based on potato yield data from 1978 to 2007 in Ningxia,and then the climatic division indices were determined by using integral regression analysis method.The distribution of climatic resources was analyzed by small grids method based on ArcGIS,and then the climatic division for potato was conducted under the condition of irrigation and non-irrigation.The result showed that suitable area mainly was in Southern Ningxia,sub-suitable area and the planting area mainly was in Central Ningxia,unsuitable area was in Northern Ningxia under non-irrigation.The suitable area was greatly extended in Northern Ningxia with irrigation.The risk assessment,used comprehensive risk index combining the yield reduction,variation coefficient,and annual reduction rate less than-10% in the poor harvest year,showed that the area with low risk mainly was in Southern Ningxia,the area with moderate risk included Yanchi,Zhongning,Zhongwei,and the area with high risk mainly included the most parts of Northern Ningxia and Haiyuan,Tongxin in Central Ningxia.