灰色理论在区域水资源耗用量预测中的应用研究

Grey Theory in Forecast of Regional Water Resources Consumption

针对对区域水资源可持续开发利用研究中的未来年份里区域耗水量的估计预测问题,借鉴灰色理论,建立了基于灰色理论的区域水资源耗水量预测模型,并通过奎屯市取水量的预测值与实际值的对比和误差分析,和利用数理统计检验中的后残差检验法检验,发现该预测模型较为实用、方便、较为准确且精确度高。证实灰色理论在区域水资源的耗水量的预测中是有参考价值的,是值得借鉴的。所建立的基于灰色理论的区域水资源耗水量预测模型是可取的。文章最后也指出了灰色理论的缺陷。

In order to forecast regional water consumption in the coming years in the study on sustainable exploitation and utilization of region water resources,this article builds up the forecasting model of regional water resources consumption based on the grey theory.Through the comparison and analysis of actual datum and forecasted datum and the errors between the two,it finds by the method of posterior margin in mathematical statistics that the forecasting model is practical and convenient with high accuracy,and the grey theory is useful in the forecast of regional water resources consumption.In the end,it also points out defects of the grey theory.