农户粮食销售时机选择及其影响因素分析

On Timing and Its Factors of Households' Grain Marketing

通过对黑龙江、吉林、内蒙古三省区232个农户调查数据分析,发现农户的售粮渠道较为单一,71.7%的农户将粮食卖给小粮贩。农户通过选择不同的销售时机来尽量化解单一销售渠道带来的"敲竹杠"风险。通过进一步分析农户售粮时机选择的影响因素,发现农户的财富水平和销售时机选择存在正相关关系,即农户家庭财富水平越高,农户销售时间越往后延。

This paper analyzes 232 sampling households surveyed in rural Hei Longjiang, Ji Lin and Inner Mongolia provinces. The results show that grain marketing channels are quite limited, about 71.7% of households sell grain to small-scale dealers. Households reduce the hold-up risk induced by limited mar- keting channels through marketing timing, which is an important strategy to alleviate price risk of grain mar- keting, as study shows that about 48.7% of households sell their grain before the Spring Festival, 20.7% sell their grain before and after the Spring Festival, and 30.6% sell their grain after the Spring Festival. Further analysis of factors affecting marketing timing indicate that the relationship between wealth status and marketing time decision is positive, i. e., when the wealth status of households are fine, peasants may post- pone the marketing time.