山东省某县恶性肿瘤死亡率的灰色动态模型预测

THE FORECAST OF GRAY DYNAMICS MODEL IN MALIGNANT NEOPLASM MORTALITY IN A COUNTY OF SHANDONG PROVINCE

为比较灰色动态模型对 １０ 种主要恶性肿瘤死亡率的拟和及预测效果，利用山东省某县１９７４～１９９２ 年 １０ 种主要恶性肿瘤死亡率资料，分别拟和 Ｇ Ｍ （１，１）模型。结果表明，只有肝癌、肺癌死亡率的 Ｇ Ｍ （１，１）模型拟合效率较好，可用于预测；其他 ８ 种恶性肿瘤死亡率资料的 Ｇ Ｍ （１，１）模型拟合效果不理想，不能用于预测。用 Ｇ Ｍ （１，１）模型对该地未来 ８ 年的肝癌、肺癌死亡率进行预测，发现在未来几年内如果不实施强有力的干预措施，两种肿瘤均将呈持续上升趋势。比较原始数据的变化趋势， Ｇ Ｍ （１，１）模型对于稳定上升的资料拟和效果较好，对波动性较大，如一些流行因素变化较大，或采用新的防疫措施的疾病，其适用性有待进一步探讨。

In order to compare the result of fitting and forecasting of 10 kinds of malignant neoplasm mortality by the gray dynamics mode. The authors fit GM(1,1) model using 1974~1992 malignant neoplasm mortality data in a county of Shandong Province. The result showed that only the models of liver and lung cancer mortality are agreeable and can be used to forecast. The models of the other 8 kinds of malignant neoplasm mortality dont agreeable and dont fit to be forecasted. The forecasting result for liver and lung cancer mortality by the gray dynamics model showed that both of the two kinds of neoplasm mortality have continuous increasing trend in the future, if there arent strong interposing methods to be carried out. Comparing the trends of the raw data, it is considered that the fitting result of stabilized increasing data is better than that of undulate data, such as the disease that epidemiological factors vary evidently or new epidemic prevention method has been actualized.