帽峰山森林气温与区域气温变化趋势分析

Analysis of Temperature Variation Trends in Maofengshan Mt Subtropical Evergreen Broad-leaves Forest and Guangzhou City

根据广州市1952—2009年和帽峰山2004—2009年气温观测数据,采用统计分析方法和季节分解加法模型,分析了帽峰山森林气温与区域气温变化趋势特征。结果表明:广州市近58年来气温增暖趋势显著,年平均气温的倾向率达0.21℃.a-1;2004—2009年间,广州市和帽峰山气温变化均呈下降趋势,气温倾向率分别为-0.008、-0.293℃.a-1,帽峰山气温下降幅度大于广州市;帽峰山林区气温变化趋势与广州市气温变化趋势基本一致;在区域极端异常天气出现前,森林气温变化趋势出现负反馈。

The responses and feedbacks of the forest climate ecosystem into the future global climate change have become very attractive issues.Analysis of historic climate data from 1952 to 2009 of Guangzhou and that from 2004 to 2009 in Maofengshan Mt forest ecosystem by using statistical method and seasonal decomposition additive model confirms that the climate in Guangzhou has recently been warming at a rate of 0.21 ℃ per decade;The results showed that the temperatures in Guangzhou and Maofengshan Mt were significantly positive correlated,the air temperature change in 2004—2009 had a decreasing trend at a rate of-0.008 ℃·a^-1 and-0.293 ℃·a^-1;The temperature change of Maofengshan Mt subtropical evergreen broad-leaves forest climate ecosystem positively responsed to regional climate change of Guangzhou.Occasionally,its responses appeared negative feedback before the abnormal weather,for example,before the winter-weather disaster in January and February 2008.Climate change is threatening the health of forests around the world.As temperature rises,the negative impacts of climate change are expected to far outweigh any benefits.The advanced fields need to be developed were discussed.