基于作物生育期灾害敏感指数的旱灾粮食减产量研究

Research on the Amount of Grain Loss by Droughts Based on the Sensitive Index of Crop Growth Period

我国是自然灾害频繁发生的国家,自然灾害造成不同程度的粮食减产,是粮食安全的潜在风险源。该文以旱灾为主,将全国各地区作物生育期、不同旱灾强度、发生时间及发生次数进行耦合分析,研究其耦合规律及主要粮食作物在各生育期对灾害的敏感性,并据此计算我国不同地区旱灾减产量并进行风险评价分析。研究表明,冬小麦的返青、乳熟和成熟期,春小麦的分蘖、乳熟和成熟期,玉米的三叶、七叶和成熟期以及水稻的返青、孕穗、乳熟和成熟期均是防灾减灾的关键期,应该加强农田管理,减少灾害损失。旱灾对我国粮食主产区影响较大,粮食减产风险防范关键区主要分布在黄淮海区、长江中下游区。

China is a county with frequent natural disasters. Natural disasters have grain yield reduction at different levels, and are the potential sources of food security. Based on studies of drought, this paper couples crop growth periods with different intensities, the times and frequencies of drought, further studies on the coupling laws and the sensitivities of disaster at different growth periods of main grain crops, calculates the amount of grain yield reduction caused by drought, analyzes and evaluates drought risk. The results show that the re-greening, milky stage and maturity stage of winter wheat, tillering stage, milky stage and maturity stage of spring wheat, trefoil stage, seven leaves and maturity stage of maize, the re-greening stage, booting stage, milky stage and maturity stage of rice are the critical periods of drought precaution and drought mitigation. Droughts have greater impact on China＇s main grain-producing areas. The key areas of drought precaution are mainly distributed in the North China Plain, the Yangtze District.