基于GRA的村镇震灾损失影响因素分析

Influencing Factors Analysis on Rural Earthquake Losses Based on the Theory of GRA

村镇灾害所遭受的损失主要分为人员伤亡与经济损失,这些损失是受多方面、多领域因素的影响及相互复杂作用所产生的结果。任何灾害的发生都与人口、资源、环境等客观因素密切相关,客观因素直接关系到灾害的影响程度和范围。文章从人的因素、资源状况和环境因素出发在定性分析村镇灾害的客观影响因素后,应用灰色关联分析方法得出各影响因素的关联度。采用定性与定量相结合的途径,提出减灾的可控制因素及可减灾程度,为改变以往防灾减灾中"重救轻防"的状况提供技术支持,为政府部门制定灾害抢险救灾方案提供有效的科学依据。

The disaster losses of rural area mainly involve casualties and economic losses, which are affected by different areas of factors at the same time. Losses caused by disasters are related to the influencing factors such as population, resource and environment, and the influencing factors directly affect the extent and scope of the disasters. The qualitative analysis of influencing factors was conducted from the aspects of population, resource and environment. The grey relation analysis were applied to identify the controlling influencing factors and the extent of disaster mitigation, which provides effective and scientific basis for government departments to develop disaster rescue programs and disaster prevention and mitigation strategies.