山西省“十二五”廉租房建设预测研究

Prediction Research on Low-Rent Housing Construction in Shanxi Province for the "12th Five-Year Plan"

针对山西省廉租房建设存在覆盖面比较小、保障对象比较狭窄、房源供应严重不足等问题,根据《山西统计年鉴》、《辉煌山西60年》和抽样调查的数据,以及相关部门提供的资料,采用定性分析与定量分析相结合的方法,预测得到"十二五"期间山西省城镇总人口、城镇居民家庭年收入以及商品住房市场均价;并考虑政府财政和土地的资源供应能力,确定了"十二五"期间城镇廉租房住户所对应的居民家庭年收入线标准和需要保障的比例,从而预测出"十二五"期间城镇廉租房的年均建设数量。这对山西省科学合理地制定"十二五"城镇廉租房建设规划具有一定的指导作用。

Focusing on the problems of building low-cost existing capacity is relatively small, the guarantee object is narrow. It is important to expand on this serious shortage of supply, etc in Shanxi province. With the help of statistical data which quoted from Statistical Yearbook of Shanxi and The Glorious 60 Years of Shanxi, and the material provided by various departments we begin to approach this issue. Utilizing-qualitative analysis with quantitative analysis methods, and analysis and prediction of Shanxi city population, and acquiring urban households＇ annual income and the average market price of commercial housing during the ＂12th five-year＂ also added informational value for this project. In addition there was consideration given to the government financial and land resources supply capacity, which determined town low-rent houses resident place corresponding households earning line standard and ratio that needs to be guaranteed during the＂12th five-year＂. All of this enabled some prediction possibilities for the annual construction quantity of town low-rent houses during the ＂12th five-year＂, which has a directive role in setting up a rational urban low-rent houses construction plan in Shanxi Province during the ＂12th five-year＂.