G20经济波动的同周期性研究--G20宏观经济政策协调的可行性及效果分析

Research on Procyclical Fluctuations of G20 Output:Feasibility and Effect Analysis on G20 Macroeconomic Policy Co-ordination

本文应用H-P滤波法对G20各成员国的经济周期进行了分析,结果表明,1980-2009年各成员国的经济周期基本具有同周期性,G20宏观经济政策协调具有可行性。在1999年G20协调机制运行前后,各成员国的经济周期均发生了一定的变化,G20协调机制有利于成员国缓和经济波动和促进持续的经济增长。研究发现,结论对中国同样适用,这表明,G20协调机制的运行有利于缓和我国经济的波动程度、提高我国经济增长的平稳性。

By using H-P filter method to analyze the business cycles of G20 countries, this paper shows that the business cycles of G20 countries were basically procyclical from 1980 to 2009 and the macroeconomic policy co-ordination of G20 is feasible. After the co-ordination mechanism running in 1999, G20 countries ＇ business cycles had some changes, the overall volatility declined about 22.96%, the overall low values increased about 27.81%. So, the co-ordination mechanism of G20 was conducive to maintaining stable fluctuations and to maintaining sustainable economic growth to members. Meanwhile, it finds that these conclusions also apply to China, which indicates that the co-ordination mechanism running in G20 is conducive to easing the volatility and improving the stability of China＇ s economic growth.