人民币周边化与东盟国家＂货币锚＂调整的效应分析

Effect of RMB Circulation in Surrounding Countries and Adjustment of Currency Anchor in ASEAN

人民币的周边化是一个由计价结算手段生成储备货币的过程,其路径应该是先升值至一个外汇市场上可接受的均衡位置,然后再实行由市场定价的浮动汇率制度。本文对2000年1月1日到2010年8月10日东盟主要国家的货币和国际货币及人民币进行了回归,发现自2005年7月21日人民币升值以来,美元在东盟国家"货币锚"的地位在下降,人民币在东盟确立了强势货币的地位,东盟主要国家的"货币锚"调整为人民币、日元和欧元。东盟国家"货币锚"的多样化,对于应对国际金融危机主要国际货币币值的大幅度波动是有利的。而作为这一过程的另外一个方面,人民币必定会成为东盟国家的储备货币,人民币的国际化进程也会得到加快。

The RMB circulation in the surrounding countries is a process from invoice currencies to reserve currencies, and the path should be rising to the equilibrium position in the foreign exchange market, and then implementing the floating exchange rate system. This paper studies the major currency in ASEAN and other international monetary by using multiple regression equation based on related data from Jan. 1st, 2000 to Aug. 10th, 2010. And then, after a brief review of the current researches, the result of the analysis is that the dollar anchor has been changed in ASEAN, and the currency anchor in ASEAN has been the RMB, the Yen and the Euro since the rise in the RMB on Jul. 21st, 2005. So the RMB has been a strong currency in these countries. The diversification of the currency anchor in ASEAN is beneficial for coping with the wide fluctuations of the major international currencies in the international financial crisis. In addition, as another aspect of the process, the RMB will become the re- serve currencies in ASEAN. The course of RMB internationalization will also be promoted.