我国人口流动与中央财政转移支付相对力度的区域差异分析

Analysis on Regional Differentiation of Population Mobility and Central Government Relative Transfer Payment in China

为了缩小东中西部地区的发展差距,中央财政加大了对中西部地区的转移支付力度,但在促进区域经济发展收敛和实现地区财政均等化方面其效果如何,文章试图从一种新的视角加以分析与诠释。改革开放以来大规模的人口跨地区流动,特别是年轻劳动力从中西部地区向发达的东部地区流动,改变了各地区的人口结构和总扶养比,进而影响中央财政转移支付的实际效果。研究结果表明,由于西部地区总扶养比高于东部地区,中央财政对西部地区的转移支付相对力度反而低于东部地区。文章最后提出将地区人口负担差异纳入中央财政预算分析体系,通过增加中央财政对经济落后地区的转移支付促进地区经济增长收敛和提高地区财政帮扶的实效性。

In order to narrow the development gap among eastern, central and western regions in China, the central government has been increasing transfer payment to central and western regions. This paper attempts to analyze its effect on promoting the convergence of regional economic development and the equalization of regional finance from a new angle. With the largecale cross-region population mobility since the reform and opening up, especially young labor workers in central and western regions moving to developed eastern regions, the regional population structure has changed, as well as general dependency rate, which affects the actual result of central government transfer payment. The result shows that, the central government relative transfer payment in western regions is below the one in eastern regions because the general dependency rate in western regions is greater than the one in eastern regions. Finally, it suggests that regional population burden should be introduced into the analysis of central government fiscal budget and the central government should increase transfer payment to backward regions in order to promote the convergence of regional economic growth and raise the effectiveness of regional fiscal aid.