贡嘎山风景名胜区的气候变化特征及其对旅游业的影响

Climate Change on the Mt.Gongga and Its Impact on Tourism

利用四川省横断山最高峰贡嘎山东坡海拔3 000m气象站近20a的观测数据,分析了贡嘎山东坡的气候变化特征和气候变化对贡嘎山风景名胜区旅游业的影响.结果表明:贡嘎山东坡的气温正在变暖,增温率为0.15℃.(10a)-1,冬春季变暖最为明显;年降雨量有增加的趋势,夏季和冬季的降水明显减少,春季和秋季降雨有微弱增加趋势;冰川发生强烈退缩现象.气候变化对贡嘎山风景区旅游业的影响主要表现在:植物季相景观出现时间发生变化,冰川景观质量下降;适宜旅游的季节从4—10月延长到3—11月.其结果短期来看,气候变化将使贡嘎山风景区的游客量增加,游客增加主要出现在冬季和春季,但长期来看海螺沟冰川持续退缩将给风景区旅游业发展带来负面影响.

The climate changing tendency was analyzed by using observation data（3 000 m a.s.l.） from Gongga Mountain Ecology Research Station.Then the potential impacts of climate change on tourism in the Mt.Gongga Scenic Area were discussed.Climate on the eastern slopes of the Mt.Gongga is warming,with an air temperature increasing rate of 0.15℃ per decade.Climate warming is most obvious in spring and winter,with a dramatically increase in winter,especially in February,but the average air temperature in summer decreases a little.Annual precipitation has a tendency of increase.Precipitation in summer and winter has decreased in the recent years.However,it has slightly increased in spring and autumn.Glaciers on the Mt.Gongga have continuously retreated.Climate change on the Mt.Gongga has brought opportunities and risks to tourism.The phenology will change if it continues to be warmer,namely,the spring phenology will be in advance and the autumn phenology will be postponed.The best time to enjoy the phenology will change,which must be accurately predicated and told visitors.The core landscape,Hailuogou Glacier,will continue to shrink under global warming,which might influence the decision of visitors whether they will travel to the Mount or not.The length of tourism season will be extended from March to November.In short term,the number of tourists to the Mt.Gongga will increase with the increase of air temperature,especially in winter and spring.In the long tern,tourism will encounter negative effects due to continuous retreat of the Hailuogou Glacier.