人民币升值与银行危机的历史启示

历史上,许多国家在汇率制度改革后经历了银行危机。在对五个银行危机指标进行分析后,对中国与18个退出固定汇率制度后经历货币升值的国家进行了对比研究。实证分析结果表明,中国在实际退出固定汇率制度并保持人民币小幅升值的经济背景下,发生银行危机的概率没有明显变化。

Historically,many countries in the exchan ge rate system reform through the banking crisis.In this paper,we chosen five indicators of banking crises and compared China to others 18 exits up sample countries.The empirical results show that in the background of the China exits from actual peg and followed by small currency appreciation,the probability of banking crisis did not change significantly.