京津冀一体化对首都人口规模的影响

Research on the Influences of BTH's Integration on Population of Beijing

京津冀区域一体化人口规模预测的主要功能,是反映该区域经济、社会、人口发展的基本走势,包括未来集聚的程度、增长速度、主要结构变动的情况。本文首先对该区域现有的人口数据进行了必要的校核;其次,对京津冀区域总人口增长和城镇化发展的历史轨迹与特点进行分析,阐述未来影响区域总人口增长和城镇化发展的主要因素和变化趋势;最后,采用多模型预测,给出了区域及各城市总人口规模的预测值。

The prediction function of population in Beijing, Tianjin and Hebei Province is to show the basic trends of the region＇ s economic, social and demographic development, including the future level of agglomeration, the growth rate and the main structural changes. Therefore firstly, we check and correct the current population data of this region. Secondly, we analyze the historical development and characteristics of the total population growth and urbanization, then find out the main influencing factors. Thirdly, we get the exact value of the predicted population of the region and its respective cities.