南水北调通水初期向海河流域农业和生态补水的可能性探讨

On feasibility of water supplement to agriculture and ecology in Haihe River Basin at beginning of water-supply from South-North Water Transfer Project

本文分析了南水北调通水初期工程的供水余力,利用长系列调节计算方法对海河流域的供需进行了模拟计算,探讨了南水北调的余水量及余水几率,以及余水年份农业和生态的缺水状况,分析了向农业和生态补水现有的工程条件,提出了南水北调工程通水初期具有向海河流域农业和生态补水的可能性以及工程择时实施补水时需要注意的问题。

The surplus of water supply at the beginning of the water-supply from the South-to-North Water Transfer Project is analyzed herein, and then a simulation is made on the water supply-demand within Haihe River Basin through the calculation on long series operation; from which the water surplus and the probability of the surplus water of the project as well as the water scarcities of both the agriculture and ecology within the basin during the year of the water surplus from the project are discussed, further- more, the existing engineering condition for the water supplement to the agriculture and ecology is also analyzed. At last, it is pointed out that there is the feasibility of water supplement to the agriculture and ecology therein at the beginning of the water-supply from the project, meanwhile, some problems should be paid attention to during the timely implementation of the water supplement from the project are presented as well.