一个无偏灰色马尔可夫铁路货运量预测模型

An Unbiased Grey-Markov Chain Forecasting Model of Railway Freight Volume

科学的货运量预测对铁路发展战略的制定具有十分重要的意义。针对传统的灰色预测模型存在固有偏差,在增长率较大和数据异常波动时预测精度低,将无偏灰色理论和马尔可夫链引入预测模型,提出无偏灰色马尔可夫链预测铁路货运量的预测模型。结合实例证明了该模型预测结果更加准确可靠,具有一定的可行性和有效性。

The Grey prediction model GM（1,1） has inherent error and the forecasting precision is poor with data changing greatly.So the unbiased grey theory and Markov chain are introduced into the forecasting model and the Unbiased Grey-Markov is proposed.Then instances show that the new model proposed in the paper is more accurate,and the method is feasible and effective.