2005年上海产业发展前景

Prediction of Industries Development in Shanghai in Year 2005

本文用产业演进的一般理论分析了上海产业发展的非均衡特征，并且用回归技术和产业演进的一般规律对上海２００５ 年产业结构进行了预测。

This paper employs theory of industries evolution to analyse the development of Shanghai industries in future. A quantitative model is developed to forecast the distribution of labor and GDP shares among three industries. The prospects of Shanghai industries in the year 2005 are discussed and compared with Hong Kong and Singapore.