基于技术预见德尔菲调查的共性技术课题选择方法研究

The Research on Generic Technology Topics Selection Methods Based on Delphi in Technology Forecasting

共性技术是国家技术发展过程中的关键技术,它对提升国家的产业技术能力与国际竞争力具有重要的推动作用.但是,目前世界各国的技术预见实践中,鲜有对共性技术的识别方法提供一套有效的系统方案.基于多属性决策理论,采用德尔菲调查的方法,提供了一种计算技术课题发展优先度的具体方案,并提出了相关建议.

Generic technology is one of the key technologies in the national technology development,which plays an important role in increasing the capability of industrial technology and international competitiveness.However,there is still no effective method of generic technology selection in both practice and research of technology forecasting.Based on multi-attribute decision theory,this paper introduces Delphi method to provide a specific program for computing the priority of technology development topics,and then puts forward relevant proposals.