基于吸收马尔可夫链的我国进口关税征收率的理论估计

The Theoretical Estimate for the Collection Ratio of Customs Duties in China Based on Absorption Markov Chain

本文运用吸收马尔可夫链吸收概率的计算原理，通过对进口关税征收系统的进关、报关和关内三个环节走私查获率的推算，对我国进口关税的征收率进行了理论估计，并分析了走私查获率与关税理论征收率之间的弹性关系。

Based on the principle of Markov chain absorption probability, this paper estimated the collection ratio of customs duties in china through calculating ratio of smuggling seizure through the three links entry of the customs, customs declaration and within the customs. It also made some discussions of the elasticity between the ratio of smuggling seizure and the theoretically collection ratio of customs duty.