江西省林地面积变化原因探析

Exploration of the Causes for Forest Area Changes in Jiangxi Province

基于栅格面积成分数据,构建了研究林地面积变化原因的计量经济模型,采用Tob it回归分析方法估计了自然环境条件和社会经济因素对江西省林地面积变化的影响。文章遴选出了包括人口、人均GDP、区位条件等在内的影响江西省林地面积变化的主要因素,分析了各种因素驱动江西省林地面积变化的机理,提出了江西省加强林地保护、促进林地面积增加的一个重要途径——加快经济发展,特别是通过加快基础设施建设促进相对落后地区的经济发展,发挥经济增长对林地保育的积极作用。同时研究还发现,积极转移农村剩余劳动力,减少人口对周边林地的压力,也是缓解江西省毁林垦荒压力的重要手段之一。研究结论为江西省制订并实施林地资源保护与开发利用政策提供了具有参考价值的信息。

Changes of forest area in Jiangxi Province is considered to be one of the major threats to wood security and ecosystem services at regional extent. However, knowledge about the explanation of forest area changes is far from completeness. Therefore, this research integrates natural environmental information with socio-economic processes and policy changes to build the econometric model to explore the driving mechanism for forest area changes from 1988 to 2005. Tobit regression analysis was used to measure socio-economic and natural factors. The estimation results show that the influencing factors for forest area include population, per capita GDP and location factors on forest area changes. The research finds that one possible way to promote the reforesta- tion is to improve the economic development level, particularly to quicken the pace of infrastruc- ture construction, of less developed areas in Jiangxi Province. And promoting transfer of rural sur- plus labor of Jiangxi Province may also be beneficial to relieve stresses of deforestation for farm- land reclamation. The research results eould provide decision making information support for land use planning as well as forest protection.