基于保障活动流程的装备群保障规模预测模型

Equipments support footprint forecast model based on support activity flow

为解决研制阶段装备群保障规模预测的问题,建立了基于保障活动流程的装备群保障规模预测模型.模型从装备群的使用任务入手,以研制阶段保障性分析和保障系统建模数据为输入,通过分析资源在保障活动中被占用或被消耗的定量关系,从占用型资源和消耗型资源两方面分别提供了由功能分析框图中各层保障活动的流程汇总保障活动资源需求的方法,对保障资源数量进行计算,进而依据这些资源的重量与体积参数预测装备群的保障规模.给出了某型机群保障规模预测的算例,验证了模型的合理性与工程适用性,能够为研制阶段装备保障的改进、系统部署性分析提供理论指导与技术支持.

In order to resolve the problems encountered in the process of forecasting the equipments support footprint during the design and development phase,including the difficulty to collect the input data of the forecast models and their imprecise and unauthentic output results,an equipments support footprint forecast model was established based on support activity flow described by functional flow diagrams,which used the data of support system modeling and the results of the equipment＇s supportability analysis as input.A bottom-up approach to sum the total quantity of the resources demanded by the support activities with logic relations in the same level of the functional flow diagrams was presented,which considered the characteristics of support resources being consumed or occupied in equipment＇s operational and maintenance activities.The equipments support footprint was calculated on the basis of the weight and volume of the support resources and their number allocated in the support site which was calculated by the former approach.The proposed model was demonstrated via a practical case of aircraft,which proved that the model and analysis mythology is effective theory for equipment deployment analysis.