易门井静水位预报指标综合研究及运用

Comprehensive study on forecasting and application of indicators of the static water level in Yinmen well

地下流体的观测与研究,是捕捉地震前兆信息的主要方法之一,是做好地震监测预报的重要途径。对易门静水位十多年观测中的一些异常与地震作分析、探讨,从单项指标的分析到综合指标的研究运用,并在多年的预测预报实践中,筛选出对应率、概率较高的5个短临预报指标,其预报准确率为0.928,预报有效率为0.948,可靠率为0.938,通过双概率检验。在综合预报指标的前提下,采用"60点滑动法",给出定性、定量的综合判据,建立了以易门为圆心200 km内M≥5.0地震的综合指标预测方案。

The underground fluid observation and the research is one of the main approaches to capture earthquake precursor information. It is also an important way for earthquake monitoring and prediction. Based on the static water level in Yimen well for more than ten years, some anomalies and earthquake observation are analyzed and discussed. From the single index analysis to research comprehensive index, and in the years of forecast practice, the corre- sponding rate, high probability of five short forecast indexes are chosen which forecasting ac- curacy is 0. 928, forecasting validity is 0. 948, and reliability is 0. 938. These indexes also pass through the dual probability test. On the premise of integrated forecast indexes, using 60 point sliding method, a qualitative and quantitative criterion is further developed and the comprehensive index forecasting plan for M≥5.0 earthquake in the 200 km circle centered as Yimen has been established.