摘要
本文以近期掀起的又一轮呼吁人民币升值的讨论为背景,再次对人民币汇率以及中国货币控制进行分析。通过分析因人民币升值而引起的中国所面临的货币困境,以及解决困境所采取的措施(即建立CIC和对流动性的对冲操作),评论了措施的局限性,并从汇率的利率平价理论入手分析人民币汇率与中国货币控制的互动关系;借鉴日本经验分析并佐证了关于汇率的几个错误概念,提出近期应去除人民币单向升值的预期,只有保持汇率相对稳定才有利于中国经济发展。
This paper takes another round discussion of RMB appreciation as background to analyze RMB exchange rate and China′s monetary control again.It analyzes Chinese monetary dilemma caused by RMB appreciation and comments on the limitations of the measures（the establishment of CIC and the hedge operation of liquidity） to resolve that dilemma.From the view of interest parity theory,the interaction of RMB exchange rate and China′s monetary control is analyzed deeply.Several misconceptions about exchange rate are analyzed and proved by the experience of Japan.Authors suggest that one-way bet that RMB would appreciate should be removed and maintaining a stable exchange rate would be helpful to China′s macroeconomic development.
出处
《商业研究》
CSSCI
北大核心
2011年第3期6-10,共5页
Commercial Research
基金
重庆市教委科技项目
项目编号:KJ100609
关键词
人民币汇率
对冲操作
货币控制
利率平价
RMB exchange rate
hedge operation
monetary control
interest parity
