甘肃历史时期干旱、饥荒和虫害相关性研究及应对策略建议

Interrelation among drought,famine and pests in historical periods of Gansu Province,China

根据中国甘肃省近3000年干旱、饥荒、虫害的历史资料,系统研究了甘肃省干旱的历史发生规律及其产生的影响。结果显示:甘肃省历史时期旱灾频繁且有愈演愈烈的趋势,干旱与饥荒存在较为明显的正相关,干旱引发的虫害也会加重饥荒,同时,由干旱引发的一系列问题会导致社会秩序的不稳定,在古代就表现为朝代的更替及战争。作者建议,随着全球气候变暖,甘肃省的生计将受到更加严重的影响,气候变化导致的贫困问题会进一步加剧,社区应对气候变化的政策措施需要决策机构给予尽早关注。

According to nearly 3000 years＇ historical data of drought,famine,and insect pests in Gansu,we did a systematic research on drought frequency and its impacts,showing that droughts frequently happened in historical periods of China and that drought frequency would continue to increase in the near future.Moreover,the research results showed that there was obvious positive correlation among drought,famine,and pests,and that drought would intensify famine as well since drought resulted in insect pests.In addition,drought would cause a series of problems including social instability.Wars and dynasty changes were result of drought.We proposed that the government should pay more attention to climate adaptation policy interventions because global warming would intensify poverty and put negative impacts on livelihood in Gansu Province.