新疆未来人口发展趋势研究

The future population development in Xinjiang

人口因素是社会经济发展的重要因素,人口的增长趋势将影响到未来社会经济的可持续发展。根据2000年新疆人口普查资料,采用队列法、Gm(1,1)模型对新疆2010年至2040年人口结构进行预测,分析新疆未来人口发展趋势及社会影响,并对相关问题提出了针对性的政策建议。

Population is a major factor in socio-economic development.Population growth trend of Xinjiang would affect the sustainable development of economics.We used stacking method and GM（1,1） model on the basis of data acquired from the statistics material of Xinjiang to predict the total population trend,age and population structure of Xinjiang,then analyzed its features.