摘要
对2008年三峡水库入库洪水特点进行分析,并针对场次洪水和连续自动预报两种方式进行预报误差统计,两种方式预报结果都表明2008年实时联机水文预报精度达到水文情报预报规范的甲级标准,同时发现未来降雨对三峡水库入库预报精度影响较大,部分场次洪水结合(不结合)未来降雨的预报精度差别很大,且随着预见期增长,预报误差也加大。
Inflow flood characteristics of the Three Gorges Reservoir in 2008 were analyzed, and the error statistics was made according to flood event analysis and continuous automatic forecast. The result shows that the accuracy of on-line hydrological forecasting has reached Grade A in China＇s Hydrological Information and Forecast Criterion. It also shows that the future rainfall has a strong impact on the forecast results. The accuracy of forecast with future rainfall considered is higher than that without considering future rainfall, and the error of the forecast will increase with the forecast lead time becoming longer.
出处
《水文》
CSCD
北大核心
2011年第1期31-34,80,共5页
Journal of China Hydrology
关键词
三峡水库
洪水
实时联机水文预报
预见期
Three Gorges reservoir
flood
on-line hydrological forecasting
forecast lead time
