技术进步与台湾农业增长演进的实证研究:1963—2008年

Empirical Research on Technological Progress and the Evolution of Taiwan's Agriculture Growth from 1963 to 2008

本文运用超越对数模型对1963—2008年的台湾农业技术进步率进行测算分解,并分阶段探讨了其农业增长演替规律。结果发现:近50年来,台湾农业技术进步率和技术进步贡献率均呈稳定增长态势;台湾农业增长经历由资本主导到资本和技术进步双向驱动再到技术进步主导的嬗变,其农业增长方式已由粗放型转变为集约型。通过技术变迁来消除资源禀赋制约是未来台湾农业持续增长的最佳路径。

The paper uses Translog model to calculate and decompose the Taiwan＇s agriculture technological progress rate from 1963 to 2008 ,and discusses its agriculture growth succession rule by stages. The results shows that Taiwan＇s agriculture technological progress rate and technological progress contribution rate have increased steadily in the recent 50 years ;Taiwan＇s agriculture growth mode has been from the extensive into the intensive type as it experiences the capital leading to two-way drive of capital and technological progress and to the technological progress domination. In the future, it is the best path to eliminate the resource endowment restriction through the technological change for sustainable growth of agriculture in Taiwan.