中国物价波动适度区间研究与物价走势预测

The Normal Interval and the Future Trend of China's Price Level

本文首先用HP滤波估计我国潜在产出,在"平均化"及"物价水平与产出缺口关系"两种思想指导下,估计我国物价波动的适度区间,根据两种方法结果和实际经济形势分析得到我国物价波动的适度区间为[0.90%,5.13%]。在此基础上评价我国各时期物价水平及相应经济政策的合理性,进而分析当前经济形势,认为我国目前仍存在通胀压力,最后提出相应的政策建议。

Based on estimation of China＇s potential output by HP filter,we study the normal interval of China＇s price fluctuation which is estimated by two methods： ＂Averaging＂ and ＂Correlation of Price Level and Output Gap＂.With these two results and the analysis of real macro-economic situation,we finally work out the normal interval of China＇s price level——[0.90%,5.13%].We then discuss price levels in different time periods and rationality of their corresponding policies.With this,we reach the conclusion that China is facing inflationary pressures and make corresponding policy suggestion.