2009年北京市宣武区痢疾和其他感染性腹泻发病趋势

Trend of bacillary dysentery and other infectious diarrhea in Xuanwu,Beijing in 2009

目的预测北京市宣武区(现更名为西城(南)区)2009年痢疾和其他感染性腹泻发病趋势。方法利用《中国疾病预防控制信息系统》的疫情资料,应用SPSS12.0统计软件,采用曲线拟合的方法进行预测。结果 2003～2008年痢疾发病呈缓慢增长趋势,其他感染性腹泻发病趋势呈平稳下降趋势;求得北京市宣武区其他感染性腹泻的预测模为:y=1778.35-1206.678x+367.730x2-34.141x3,痢疾单因素曲线拟合方程,P>0.05,故无统计学意义。结论 2009年北京市宣武区痢疾和其他感染性腹泻发病率呈下降趋势。

Objective To predict trend of bacillary dysentery and other infectious diarrhea in Xuanwu （now a part of Xicheng district）,Beijing in 2009. Methods Data of reported cases of bacillary dysentery and other infectious diarrhea during 2003 ～ 2008 from ＂China Information System for Disease Control and Prevention＂were used to forecast their occurrence trend during 2009 with curve fitting method by SPSS version 12. 0 software. Results In general,bacillary dysentery was in a slow growth trend and other infectious diarrhea disease in a smooth-down trend during 2003 to 2008 in Xuanwu,Beijing,with a fitted curve equation for prediction of infectious diarrhea in 2009 with statistical significance： y = 1778. 35-1206. 678x ＋ 367. 730x2-34. 141x3 （P 0. 05）,but not statistically significant for prediction of bacillary dysentery （P 0. 05）. Conclusions Incidence of bacillary dysentery and other infectious diarrhea present a down trend in 2009 in Xuanwu,Beijing.