TOVS资料的变分处理方法在青藏高原地区的数值试验

Numerical Simulation over the Tibetan Plateau by Using Variational Technique Revised TOVS Data

首次在测站稀少的高原地区引入经变分技术处理的ＴＯＶＳ 资料，使用ＭＭ５ 数值模式对高原地区降水数值预报难点进行了研究。探讨了解决高原地区测站少、数值预报模式初始场信息误差大的技术关键问题，提出了采用ＴＯＶＳ 资料在高原地区增加初始场信息的构思。数值试验结果表明，应用应分法处理后的ＴＯＶＳ 资料，可显著地提高高原初始场信息的可靠性。考虑夏季高原地区是对流多发区特点，本文采用非静力ＭＭ５ 模式，并在模式初始场中增加了ＴＯＶＳ资料，弥补了测站稀少的高原地区使用非静力模式的不足之处。研究结果表明，本文采用的ＴＯＶＳ 资料技术方案可能是高原区域数值模式降水预报的有效途径，并为开拓卫星资料的应用领域提供了技术思路与理论分析依据。

By the mean of introducing TOVS data, corrected by variational method, into the initial field over the Tibetan Plateau region where sparse observations exist, the numerical prediction of precipition, the most difficult problem, is made the first time by MM5 model on the special region in this study. We investigate that to minimize the large error of initial fields in the numerical prediction model, which caused by the sparse observation on the Plateau. Therefore, we draft the framework in which some bogus soundings are embodied with TOVS data over there in such a way that the dependability of the initial condition increases significantly. In the meantime, we further confirm that TOVS data are beneficial to improving the objectivity of initial fields. Under the consideration of the summer convection features on the Tibetan Plateau, the initial fields of MM5 model are enhanced by TOVS data in the study. The results show that the technical scheme is an efficient way to implement operational precipitation forecast with model on the Plateau region, and the exploration provides some technical methods and theoretical bases on the applications of satellite data as well.