灰色系统GM(1,1)模型在孕产妇死亡率预测研究中的应用

Application of Grey Model GM(1,1) on Prediction of Maternal Mortality Ratio in China

目的探讨1991-2009年我国孕产妇死亡率的趋势,并进行短期预测,为继续降低孕产妇死亡率提供理论依据。方法 根据全国1991-2009年孕产妇死亡率数据,拟合灰色系统GM(1,1)预测模型,进行回代预测、拟合精度评价和外推预测。结果建立的预测模型为:x(1)(t+1)=-1 793.6e-0.042t+1 873.6,模型的回代拟合精度指标后验差比值C为0.2746,小误差概率P为100%,拟合精度等级达最好级别。利用建立的模型预测2010年全国孕产妇死亡率达34.60/10万。结论 GM(1,1)模型拟合全国孕产妇死亡率的数据结果理想,可用于孕产妇死亡率的短期预测。

Objective To explore the feasibility for application of GM（1,1） model to predict the maternal mortality ratio（MMR） in China so as to provide the theoretical basis for continuing to reduce the MMR. Methods GM（1,1） model was established based on the MMR of China from 1991 to 2009.The prognosticating precision was analyzed to evaluate the model. Results The established model was the following： x^（1）（t＋1）=-1 793.6e-0.042t＋1 873.6.The prognosticating precision of GM（1,1） was excellent in accordance with the criterion of grey model prognostication assessment and the prediction results showed that maternal mortality ratio in national areas would be 34.60/100,000 in 2010. Conclusions The GM（1,1） is acceptable to analyze the trends of MMR according to the result of fitness,and the models can be used to predict the trend in short-term future.