基于SVAR模型的中国货币与财政政策动态效应研究

Research of Dynamic Effect of Monetary Policy and Fiscal Policy on SVAR Model

货币政策和财政政策是国家宏观经济调控的两大基本政策手段。通过采用结构式向量自回归(SVAR)模型,引入5个分别反映产出、通货膨胀率、货币政策、财政收入、财政支出的变量,建立相应的联立方程,以对货币政策与财政政策传导机制进行研究。研究结果表明:2002年至今,货币政策在调节宏观经济运行方面的效果要强于财政政策;货币政策与财政政策对需求都有一定程度的冲击;同时货币政策对需求波动的影响也更为明显;增加财政支出会对货币供给量产生一定的正向冲击。

Monetary policy and fiscal policy are the two fundamental policies to control the macroeconomic in the nation.By adopting Structural Vector Autoregression Model（SVAR） and introducing five variables which apart reflect production,rate of inflation,monetary policy,fiscal revenue,fiscal expenditure,simultaneous equations are set up to analyze the changes of transmission mechanism of monetary policy and fiscal policy.The result shows that from 2002,the effect of monetary policy on regulating the macroeconomic operation is strongger than the effect of fiscal policy.This two policies will make an impact on the Domestic demand to a certain degree and comparatively speaking,the monetary policy will affect the price fluctuates more obviously.At the same time,enhancing the fiscal expenditure will produce a positive influence to the money supply.