房价波动与CPI关系的计量分析

Econometric Analysis on the Relationship between Housing Price Index and Consumer Price Index

2004年以来我国房价涨幅过高,房价指数波动加剧。但房价的变动并没有体现在我国居民消费价格指数(CPI)中。通过对房屋销售价格指数与居民消费价格指数关系的计量分析,证实了二者间不仅有比较显著的相关关系,而且存在因果关系,房屋销售价格指数是居民消费价格指数的格兰杰(Granger)原因。在格兰杰因果关系分析的基础上,以房屋销售价格指数作为外生变量,建立了居民消费价格指数的自回归分布滞后模型,具体量化了房屋销售价格指数对居民消费价格指数的影响。

The sales price of houses has risen rapidly since 2004,and its index fluctuates.But the change of sales price of houses is not included in the consumer price index.This paper analyzes the relationship between sales price index of houses and consumer price index.It is found that sales price index of houses is the Granger cause of consumer price index.Then an auto-regressive distributed lag model is established,which demonstrates the quantitative effect of sales price index of houses on consumer price index.