论美国经济复苏中的经济形态转变与结构调整

On Economic Form Transformation and Structural Adjustment in U.S. Economic Recovery

根据经济周期的规律,用经济形态的四象限图分析了美国经济形态的转变及其由繁荣到衰退再到经济复苏的全过程,并探索其背后的宏观经济政策。同时,根据美国经济结构的调整分析,探讨未来美国经济增长点。最后对拉动经济复苏的宏观政策,如利率政策、财政政策、消费政策和贸易政策进行了评价,认为美国经济的复苏将重新回到依靠个人消费拉动经济增长同时净出口逆差增大的轨迹上,并对未来美国经济形势、经济形态、经济结构和经济政策进行了展望。

According to economic cycle theory,this paper makes the use of four-quadrant diagram to systematically analyze the U.S.economic forms and the process from prosperity to depression and to economic recovery,exploring the macroeconomic policies behind the transformation.Meantime,according to the analysis of economic structure adjustment,this paper discusses the U.S.economic growth direction in the future.At last,this paper evaluates the macro-policies such as interest rate policy,fiscal policy,consumption policy and trade policy which aim at stimulating economic recovery.This paper reckons that the U.S.economic recovery is coming back to the road of depending on private consumption and increasing trade deficit to promote economic growth.In the end,this paper makes an outlook about the U.S.economic trend,economic form,economic structure and economic policy.