江汉平原区域降水与气温长期变化趋势分析

Long-term Trends of Precipitation and Temperature in Jianghan Plain from 1957 to 2008

挑选江汉平原区域内具有代表性的5个气象站52年间(1957-2008年)的逐月降水量和月平均气温观测资料,取显著性水平α=0.05,运用Mann-Kendall检验对年季降水量和年平均气温时间序列进行统计分析。结果发现:区域年降水量没有明显的变化趋势。从季节变化来看,春秋两季降水呈缓和的下降变化趋势,夏季降水呈上升趋势,但变化趋势不显著,冬季降水有显著的上升变化趋势;区域年平均气温有显著的上升变化趋势,特别是最近20年来上升幅度明显增大。年平均气温时间序列从1994年开始发生了突变,突变以后上升变化趋势更加强烈。

According to the monthly precipitation and average temperature data collected at the five typical meteorological stations from 1957 to 2008,the authors analyze the trends of precipitation and temperature in the Jianghan Plain by using Mann-kendall test with the significance level α=0.05.The results show that： there isn＇t a remarkable variation trend of annual precipitation time series in the Jianghan Plain.As for the seasonal precipitation,spring and autumn precipitation have a downward trend and summer precipitation has an upward trend,but all of them are not remarkable,only winter precipitation has a remarkable upward trend.Annual average temperature time series have a remarkable upward trend,and the rate increases significantly in recent 20 years.There is a abrupt change from 1994 to 1995;after that,the upward trend becomes even more fierce.