2011年宏观经济运行与国内银行业发展趋势预测

Prospects of Chinese Economy and Banking Industry in 2011

2010年以来,随着一系列宏观经济政策的实施,我国经济运行已开始进入常规增长轨道。2011年宏观调控的基调应定位于"控通胀、调结构、促内需、稳增长"。预计2011年全球经济继续温和复苏,"二次探底"或快速增长的可能性均较小;我国消费、出口实际增长稳中有降,投资增长动力依然强劲;物价上涨趋势延续,通货膨胀成为经济运行中的突出问题;宏观经济政策转向,财政政策和货币政策由"双松"转向"一松一紧";金融监管政策趋紧,银行业面临较大的资本管理与经营利润压力;房地产调控政策效应递减,房地产价格可能在下半年快速反弹。在这种背景下,2011年中国银行业会继续保持平稳发展的势头,但资产业务的发展会受到抑制,资产质量问题也会有所暴露。

Since 2010,with a series of macro-economic policy,China＇s economic operation has entered the regular growth path.In 2011,the tone of macroeconomic policy should be defined as＂controlling inflation,adjusting structure,promoting domestic demand and maintaining steady growth.＂Global economy will continue its moderate recovery,the possibility of＂double dip＂or rapid growth are both small.The real growth of China consumption and export will decline to some extent but maintain relatively high rates,investment growth momentum will remain strong.Prices will continue its upward trend,inflation will become the outstanding problems in economic operations.Macroeconomic policy will change,＂double loose＂fiscal policy and monetary policy will be substituted by＂one loose one tight＂combination.Financial regulatory policy is tightening,and the banking industry is facing greater pressure on capital management and operating profits.The effect of real estate controlling policy will diminish,and real estate prices may rebound quickly in the second half.In this context,China＇s banking sector in 2011 will continue to maintain the momentum of steady development.However,the development of commercial banks asset businesses will be inhibited,and the asset quality problems will be exposed to some extent.