证券公司财务指标失败预警能力研究

Research on Effectiveness of Financial Indicators as Early Warning of Securities Company

2008年的金融危机重创了全球经济,而其间美国贝尔斯登、雷曼兄弟、美林等著名投资银行的失败在全球金融危机中又起到了推波助澜的作用。这就要求我们及早有效地对证券公司(投资银行)的失败进行预警。而证券公司的财务状况都会通过一些敏感性财务指标反映出来,所以找出对证券公司失败有预警能力的指标变得尤为重要。本文将在对主要的一般企业失败预警模型和证券公司失败预警模型所涉及的财务指标进行全面梳理的基础上,结合证券公司的特点设计出一批新的财务指标,然后对这些财务指标的失败预警能力进行实证研究,从而明确对证券公司具有较好失败预警能力的财务指标。

The 2008 financial crisis occurred hit the global economy badly.Several important U.S.investment banks,such as Bear Stearns Co.Inc,Lehman Brothers Holdings and Merrill Lynch,their failure made the situation even worse.Thus we should predict timely and effectively the failure of securities companies（investment banks）.Securities companies＇ financial position can be described by a number of sensitive financial indicators,so it is critical to find out the early warning indicators.This paper reviews the early warning model of general companies and securities companies,and designs some new financial indicators according to the characters of securities company.Then we analyze empirically of the ability of these indicators as early warning and point out the better choice for securities companies.