主要经济体2011年经济形势与货币政策走向分析

Some studies of economic prospects and monetary policy trends in major economies in 2011

该文展望了各主要经济体2011年经济形势与货币政策走向。分析指出,美国政府将维持"双扩张"政策,年底之前加息的可能性不大;欧元区复苏缓慢,下半年有可能加息;英国通胀压力增大,可能于上半年加息;日本政府面临减少债务还是克服通缩的两难选择;发展中国家完成退出战略,将进入加息通道。

This paper forecasts economic prospects and monetary policy trends in major economies in 2011.The analysis shows that the United States government will maintain its expansionary fiscal and monetary policies,with little possibility of interest rate rise by the end of the year;the Eurozone will recover slowly and may raise interest rates later in the year;under increasing pressure from inflation,Britain will probably raise interest rates during the first half of the year;the Japanese government will face the dilemma of either reducing debt or avoiding deflation;and developing countries will complete their exit strategies and move into a rising interest rate phase.