关于当前粮食安全的形势判断和政策建议

Food Security Situation Judgement and Policy Recommendations

继2007～2008年期间国际粮价大起大落之后,2010年国际粮价再次大幅度上升。从当前粮食供求角度对我国粮食安全形势进行分析,短期内我国粮食安全没有重大问题。但从我国人口年龄结构和就业结构变化速度减缓,人均粮食消费需求的增长速度可能反弹,耕地的保护、单位面积产量需要提高等方面考虑,我国长期粮食安全形势十分严峻。要保障我国长期的粮食安全,应对耕地实行动态保护,对发达地区土地整理和宅基地开发利用,提高中低产田的粮食产量。

After the raising and lowering of international food price from 2007 to 2008, the international food price was raising greatly again. The paper analyzed China food security from the perspective of the supply and demand, and the result showed that there would be no severe food security problem in China in the short term. However, thinking of the Chinese population age structure and employment structure show change speed of the raising speed of percapital food cunsumer demand might rebound, and the demand of farmland protection and yield perunit would be increased. China long-rang food security trend might be very severe. In order to make sure China long-rang food security, dynamic protection of farmland should be adopted. Meanwhile, arrage and develop the farmland in developed area, and then incerase the food production in low and medium-yield.