财政政策对产业结构动态冲击效应的实证分析

Empirical Analysis of the Dynamic Effect of Fiscal Policy Shocks to the Industrial Structure

本文运用向量自回归(VAR)模型,通过残差分析、脉冲响应分析和方差分解分析,研究我国财政政策对传统产业、新兴产业和落后产业的动态冲击影响。主要结论是:财政政策包括收入和支出政策对新兴产业的影响比较显著,且是中长期有效的;财政政策中的支出政策对传统产业和落后产业的影响都比较显著,也是中长期有效的,而财政收入政策对其影响较弱。

This paper presents an econometric analysis of the dynamic effect of fiscal policy shocks to industrial structure in China based on the VAR approach.The main conclusions are： shocks,from fiscal policy including revenue and expenditure to emerging industries,are significant and effective in a long-term;the expenditure of fiscal policy shocks to the traditional industries and the backward industries,are significant and effective in a long term,but fiscal revenue policy shocks are very weak.