停运模型与事件树理论在电力系统脆性风险评估中的应用

The application of outage mode and event tree theory in power system brittleness risk assessment

阐述了电网因连锁性故障发生大停电事故的原因。基于停运模型及事件树理论对系统连锁故障进行了脆性分析;给出了风险评估流程,并结合实例验证了该方法的可行性。所以,系统的脆性风险分析,可以确定重点高风险元件,通过对高风险元件的监测、控制,防止系统连锁性故障的发生,以保证电力系统安全、可靠地运行。

With the growth of system scale under the influence of power grid interconnection,blackout caused by interlocking accidents increases.This paper analyzes the brittleness risk of system interlocking accidents on the basis of outage model and event tree,works out risk evaluation procedure and verifies the feasibility of this method by analyzing examples.Therefore,brittleness risk is able to confirm important high-risk parts and prevent interlocking accidents by monitoring and controlling high-risk parts to guarantee safe and reliable running of electric power system.